=== Tirzepatide vs seasonal weight variation ===
Generated: 2026-04-17 04:06:40 AEST
Weight data: 2015-01-01 -> 2026-04-16 (daily interpolated)
Tirzepatide window: 2025-05-03 -> 2026-04-16
Usable days in window: 349

Seasonal pattern (baseline, 30d-smoothed weight; de-mean by year):
- Typical peak ~ +0.70 kg around Feb 05 (DOY 36)
- Typical trough ~ -0.61 kg around Nov 04 (DOY 308)
- Peak-to-trough swing ~ 1.31 kg

Seasonality-adjusted 7-day slope (kg/week):
- Observed (tirz window): -0.014
- Expected seasonal (same dates): +0.009
- Residual (observed - expected): -0.023
- 95% block-bootstrap CI: [-0.139, +0.089]
- Empirical p vs baseline windows (one-sided, more loss): 0.168 (two-sided: 0.419)
- Baseline window-mean 95% range: [-0.083, +0.073] kg/week

Net change (7d-smoothed weight):
- Actual: -0.84 kg (116.84 -> 116.00)
- Expected from seasonality alone: +0.45 kg
- Seasonality-adjusted net: -1.14 kg

Early vs late residual slope (kg/week):
- First 84 days: -0.150 (n=84) p_one=0.065
- Remaining days: +0.017 (n=265) p_one=0.621

Residual slope by logged pen dose (kg/week; descriptive):
- 1 mg: mean -0.076 (n=8)
- 5 mg: mean -0.044 (n=149)
- 7.5 mg: mean +0.092 (n=82)
- 10 mg: mean -0.076 (n=110)

Dose increases (pre vs post residual slope; kg/week; descriptive):
- Using injections with Clicks >= 50.
- 2025-10-07 5->7.5 mg: pre -0.072 (n=35), post -0.027 (n=35), Delta(post-pre) +0.045 CI[-0.166, +0.194]
- 2025-12-28 7.5->10 mg: pre +0.085 (n=35), post -0.263 (n=35), Delta(post-pre) -0.349 CI[-0.706, -0.198]
Notes:
- This is observational (not medical advice). Weight is daily-interpolated and smoothed.
- Baseline excludes saxenda/semaglutide periods and adjusts for day-of-year seasonality.
- p-values compare the tirz-window mean to all pre-tirz baseline windows of the same length.